Over the past decade, global births have declined by approximately 8.6%. This structural shift is gradually weakening future labor supply and economic momentum.
TAIPEI, TAIWAN (MERXWIRE) – The global population structure is undergoing an unprecedented shift. According to the latest data from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024, an estimated 1.5 billion babies were born worldwide between 2015 and 2025. However, after peaking in 2016, annual birth numbers have generally trended downward. Despite brief periods of recovery, births in 2025 are projected to remain approximately 8.6% below the peak.
Looking back at the past decade, 2016 marked the last peak of global fertility, with births reaching 144.85 million—the highest point during this period. Thereafter, the number of newborns worldwide began to decline year by year, dropping slightly to 143 million in 2017, falling below 140 million in 2018, and reaching just 138 million in 2019, indicating that global fertility momentum has entered a long-term slowdown.
Annual number of births from 2015 to 2025:
| Year | Global Births | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 144,333,950 | |
| 2016 | 144,854,100 | Decade peak |
| 2017 | 143,601,810 | |
| 2018 | 140,332,740 | |
| 2019 | 138,596,780 | |
| 2020 | 134,719,620 | Pandemic effect |
| 2021 | 133,448,840 | |
| 2022 | 132,475,390 | |
| 2023 | 132,110,264 | |
| 2024 | 132,405,930 | Projected |
| 2025 | 132,399,176 | Projected |
Notably, 2020 marked a significant turning point, with the number of births plunging to 134.71 million—a drop of nearly 3.87 million compared to the previous year. Analysts point out that the COVID-19 pandemic not only imposed severe public health pressures worldwide but also disrupted family planning, as lockdowns, job losses, and heightened economic uncertainty weighed heavily on households.
Even as the pandemic gradually eased, global births have shown no significant rebound. Between 2021 and 2023, the total number of newborns remained around 132 to 133 million, reflecting a persistently low trend. According to the latest projections, births in 2024 and 2025 are expected to stay at approximately 132.4 million and 132.39 million, respectively. Compared with the peak in 2016, the annual number of births worldwide has declined by 8.6% in just a decade, showing that once low fertility trends take hold, they are difficult to reverse.
Why are fewer families choosing to have children? Historical data show that the global average fertility rate has steadily declined from around 5 in the 1950s to approximately 2.5 today, with some developed countries falling below 1.3. This decline in population base is not solely due to the pandemic but is also linked to global economic fluctuations, high housing costs, and inflation, which place heavy burdens on households. As a result, many young people are delaying or forgoing parenthood, further accelerating the global downward trend in fertility rates.
Looking at the regions with the highest number of newborns, Asia has remained the main contributor to global births in recent years, playing a key role in sustaining population growth. For 2025, India is projected to record about 23.07 million newborns—the highest worldwide, representing nearly one-sixth of global births. China, while facing long-term fertility decline, is projected to have roughly 8.7 million newborns, placing it second globally.
Additionally, statistics show that births in developed countries across Europe and East Asia are steadily declining. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy each record fewer than 750,000 births annually, with Japan following a similar trend. Taiwan’s situation is even more severe: in 2025, the number of newborns is projected to be only around 107,000—a historic low—officially entering the “ultra-low fertility” stage and facing serious challenges to its population structure.
If the global population were likened to a large factory, the “inventory” (total population) has exceeded 8.3 billion due to longer life expectancy, but the “new production lines” (births) are shrinking rapidly. This shortfall in births signals that, in 20 years, the world could face labor shortages and reduced consumption. The combination of fewer births and longer lifespans increases the dependency ratio, placing a heavier burden on younger generations and creating immense pressure on healthcare and public finances. The sharp decline in newborns has become a pressing global issue that requires collective attention.
